Meanwhile, in Ukraine....

When the counter-offensive started (no, I'm not going to pin a time when it started) I figured it would start very very slowly then pick up speed at a future date.

I think that future date may be coming closer.

After Putin's failed blitzkrieg the Ukrainian response has been to shape the battlefield. Using NATO/USA/Western weapons like the HiMARS - Ukraine has been starving the Russian army: destroying stocks of food, ammo, weapons and - when they can - officers. The Russian army may be bigger and not entirely stupid and corrupt but hungry, ill-lead soldiers are generally poor fighters. So Ukraine has been holding the line against more Russian gains while dropping bridges, torching tanks and generally playing Hob with supply lines. This takes time.

Unfortunately, this has given Russia times to build defenses especially minefields. Wading through them takes time.

Standard NATO/USA methods of breaking through heavily fortified defenses usually involves lots of specialized equipment to quickly blow up and bulldoze through the minefields to let the tanks and heavy infantry advance. This assumes air superiority which the Ukrainians don't have. It could be argued that the Russians don't either but still, this means standard NATO/USA methods aren't appropriate for Ukraine. Sneak attacks and missile barrages work, but again... take time.

With supply lines disrupted the Russian soldiers - many of them poorly equipped and trained to begin with - are wondering where their next box of ammo, or hot meal, is coming from. And when. Sure, they have rows of mines, trenches and tank obstacles but if you have no bullets or food... fighting becomes very difficult.

If we keep the supplies rolling into Ukraine the tide will turn in their favor. Give it time.

-m