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Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons (actually Soviet weapons from the Cold War) in exchange for security promises. Ukraine still has nuclear reactors for power and can get enough plutonium to start making low level nukes if it wants too.
Ukraine - presently not getting enough support to kick out the Russians - might start cranking out a couple of tactical nukes to drop on airbases and industrial plants. It might do a nuclear test just to show it's got the capability just to watch Putin squirm. If Ukraine actually uses it on an military site I'm sure Russia would react by nuking Kyiv. Ukraine has always hit military targets while Russia tends to hit civilians.
But a full scale exchange aimed at western European cities? Russia has been waving the nuclear option like a dick in the wind... but how capable is the Russian nuclear threat right now? If we look at the general state of the Russian army we see it is riddled with corruption, is poorly armed and badly lead. If we look at Russia in general, there's been a significant brain drain in the past decade(s) which doesn't bode well for keeping up those tricky nukes and their high tech delivery systems operational.
I"m almost betting that bits and bobs from the weapons system have already been stripped out and sold. The plutonium is probably still there but all the wires making the device go boom? Maybe not so much.
And this is rocket science. You need nerds, techies and eggheads. These are in short supply right now. Even the crew of Russia's only nuclear aircraft carrier is being sent to fight in Ukraine.
With Rump in the mix it's hard to tell what the American response will be. If Russia starts launching missiles and Rump does nothing he looks weak and limp and flaccid. He's already all those things but *shrug*. As for the rest of Europe... hard to tell.
But be ready for a world gone M.A.D.
Ukraine - presently not getting enough support to kick out the Russians - might start cranking out a couple of tactical nukes to drop on airbases and industrial plants. It might do a nuclear test just to show it's got the capability just to watch Putin squirm. If Ukraine actually uses it on an military site I'm sure Russia would react by nuking Kyiv. Ukraine has always hit military targets while Russia tends to hit civilians.
But a full scale exchange aimed at western European cities? Russia has been waving the nuclear option like a dick in the wind... but how capable is the Russian nuclear threat right now? If we look at the general state of the Russian army we see it is riddled with corruption, is poorly armed and badly lead. If we look at Russia in general, there's been a significant brain drain in the past decade(s) which doesn't bode well for keeping up those tricky nukes and their high tech delivery systems operational.
I"m almost betting that bits and bobs from the weapons system have already been stripped out and sold. The plutonium is probably still there but all the wires making the device go boom? Maybe not so much.
And this is rocket science. You need nerds, techies and eggheads. These are in short supply right now. Even the crew of Russia's only nuclear aircraft carrier is being sent to fight in Ukraine.
With Rump in the mix it's hard to tell what the American response will be. If Russia starts launching missiles and Rump does nothing he looks weak and limp and flaccid. He's already all those things but *shrug*. As for the rest of Europe... hard to tell.
But be ready for a world gone M.A.D.
no subject
On the other hand, if their systems are just barely functional then corruption and bad leadership is a very bad combo with that.