Meanwhile, in Ukraine....

[malada]

When the counter-offensive started (no, I'm not going to pin a time when it started) I figured it would start very very slowly then pick up speed at a future date.

I think that future date may be coming closer.

After Putin's failed blitzkrieg the Ukrainian response has been to shape the battlefield. Using NATO/USA/Western weapons like the HiMARS - Ukraine has been starving the Russian army: destroying stocks of food, ammo, weapons and - when they can - officers. The Russian army may be bigger and not entirely stupid and corrupt but hungry, ill-lead soldiers are generally poor fighters. So Ukraine has been holding the line against more Russian gains while dropping bridges, torching tanks and generally playing Hob with supply lines. This takes time.

Unfortunately, this has given Russia times to build defenses especially minefields. Wading through them takes time.

Standard NATO/USA methods of breaking through heavily fortified defenses usually involves lots of specialized equipment to quickly blow up and bulldoze through the minefields to let the tanks and heavy infantry advance. This assumes air superiority which the Ukrainians don't have. It could be argued that the Russians don't either but still, this means standard NATO/USA methods aren't appropriate for Ukraine. Sneak attacks and missile barrages work, but again... take time.

With supply lines disrupted the Russian soldiers - many of them poorly equipped and trained to begin with - are wondering where their next box of ammo, or hot meal, is coming from. And when. Sure, they have rows of mines, trenches and tank obstacles but if you have no bullets or food... fighting becomes very difficult.

If we keep the supplies rolling into Ukraine the tide will turn in their favor. Give it time.

-m

Comments

[siliconshaman]

Thing about minefields... if you have enough explosives like cluster munitions, you can always brute force a passage though them by the simple expedient of blowing them up. At which point, your enemy has the choice of either run like hell, or be trapped between the flanking troops and their own minefield.

I suspect the Russian defence will collapse very suddenly, when it does.

Edit: Ok that happened a lot sooner than I thought!!

[warriorsavant]

I reverently hope this is finally happening, but still too soon to tell.

Line charges/cluster munitions are great, when (1) they actually work (like anything, less often in real life than in theory), and (2) you have enough of them.

The Russian Army may be inflexible, and badly trained and led, but they do know how to build defense barriers (you don't have to be flexible, it's not that hard to plan or implement, just takes lots of work), and they have them in massive depth.

Like everyone (in the Western world) I was hoping for much faster gains by the Ukrainians, but if they were advancing at all, considering out-numbered and against massively prepared defences, then they were doing great. If they've actually broken through, they doing beyond great.

Definitely keep the supplies flowing into the Ukrainians. Whatever, and as much as they need. Sadly, we are going to need to build up our defense industry. We've seen how much stuff, especially ammo, gets consumed in a modern war. We've been fighting brush-fire wars/insurgencies for so long, we've forgotten this. Even today, it can take 2+ years to build a factory, and our stockpiles were way too low even before we started shipping stuff to Ukraine.

[siliconshaman]

same can be said of any modern weapon.. they work great when they work. And if the Russian army learnt anything from WW2, it was how to build defensive lines... But fighting a purely defensive war is fighting a losing one. The other side only needs to win once, whereas you have to win every time. As it appears Russia is learning once again.

and yeah, the side with the best logistics supply chains wins. Which side that is remains to be seen, but at the moment it doesn't seem to be the Russians.

[acelightning73]

That's how General Winter defeated the Nazis on their attempt to invade Russia.

[warriorsavant]

Could be said of anything, and the more complicated, the more one can say it. I imagine someone xx hundred (thousand?) years ago sneering at bows & arrows for the same reason, “hey, never snapped a bowstring heaving a rock at someone.”

That having been said, my limited experience with line charges was they worked better in theory. Also, the Ukrainians would need a butt-load (maybe even a metric butt-load) of them.

[malada]

The problem with brute forcing a passage through a minefield is that the equipment used isn't heavily armored and is vulnerable to air attack. The Ukrainians already tried it and got swarmed by Russian helicopters. Air superiority on the Ukrainian side will keep the Russian airforce at bay and suppress any artillery attacks.

So the Ukrainians have opted for Finesse over Force. Takes longer but in this case more effective.

-m