Ukraine goes nuclear?

[malada]

Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons (actually Soviet weapons from the Cold War) in exchange for security promises. Ukraine still has nuclear reactors for power and can get enough plutonium to start making low level nukes if it wants too.

Ukraine - presently not getting enough support to kick out the Russians - might start cranking out a couple of tactical nukes to drop on airbases and industrial plants. It might do a nuclear test just to show it's got the capability just to watch Putin squirm. If Ukraine actually uses it on an military site I'm sure Russia would react by nuking Kyiv. Ukraine has always hit military targets while Russia tends to hit civilians.

But a full scale exchange aimed at western European cities? Russia has been waving the nuclear option like a dick in the wind... but how capable is the Russian nuclear threat right now? If we look at the general state of the Russian army we see it is riddled with corruption, is poorly armed and badly lead. If we look at Russia in general, there's been a significant brain drain in the past decade(s) which doesn't bode well for keeping up those tricky nukes and their high tech delivery systems operational.

I"m almost betting that bits and bobs from the weapons system have already been stripped out and sold. The plutonium is probably still there but all the wires making the device go boom? Maybe not so much.

And this is rocket science. You need nerds, techies and eggheads. These are in short supply right now. Even the crew of Russia's only nuclear aircraft carrier is being sent to fight in Ukraine.

With Rump in the mix it's hard to tell what the American response will be. If Russia starts launching missiles and Rump does nothing he looks weak and limp and flaccid. He's already all those things but *shrug*. As for the rest of Europe... hard to tell.

But be ready for a world gone M.A.D.

Comments

[conuly]

f we look at the general state of the Russian army we see it is riddled with corruption, is poorly armed and badly lead. If we look at Russia in general, there's been a significant brain drain in the past decade(s) which doesn't bode well for keeping up those tricky nukes and their high tech delivery systems operational.

On the other hand, if their systems are just barely functional then corruption and bad leadership is a very bad combo with that.

[dewline]

Putin will Require the Vulgarian to sit on his hands. Not that Trump will mind that...

Ukraine could end up being the death of the Russian Federation. If the fight drags on long enough.

[siliconshaman]

Russia's nuclear deterrent was always a bit of a wet fart anyway. You have any idea how many people had a vested interest in making sure they never worked?

Now.. I suspect Russia's missiles are no better than China's. Poorly maintained if they are, probably 90% of them stripped for parts to keep a few more-or-less functional so they can show them off in their parades, and the rest no more than Potemkin defences, with tanks filled with water.

That said, they might have a few left that'll work. Probably around a dozen Tactical nukes on short range solid rocket fuel missiles. Which would be enough to make Ukraine have a Very Bad Day...

and then NATO would glassify Russia and invade the bits that aren't glowing. Because I'd bet everyone else knows the true state of Russia's nuclear defence and once they've shot their bolt people are going to be Very Pissed.

Fallout doesn't care who's side you're on after all.

[mellotron_breakfast]

I didn't know how to feel after reading about that, either. I have read elsewhere that the ground based early warning systems in some parts of Russia are basically just statues because specific electronic components that need to be replaced from time to time, and replaced with something of a durable quality meant for the application, were instead replaced by a comparable thing manufactured cheaply and poorly elsewhere (perhaps due to the complications of various embargoes). So the swapped-in electronics fry fast because they were never meant for the application, and whoever lives in that specific part of Russia would learn what's happening at the same time as everything blows up, and would not necessarily be in a position to fire back with what's in the area if that even works. One roll of the dice after another.

Still hoping everything gets resolved without anyone getting nuked, let alone our mutually assured destruction.